Recent Global Trade Outlook: Challenges and Shifts

Recently, notable shifts in trade conditions across various countries have presented distinct challenges and growth dynamics. 

In the United States, tariff proposals by Trump have sparked widespread attention and concern. According to the National Retail Federation, Trump's plans involve imposing a 10% or 20% tariff on all imported goods and an additional 60% to 100% tariff on Chinese products. Moreover, should Mexico fail to close its borders, Mexican goods may face tariffs ranging from 25% to 100%. Such measures are expected to drive up import prices significantly, leaving retailers under pressure and potentially passing these costs onto consumers. For instance, toy prices could rise between 36.3% and 55.8%, with annual costs for households increasing by as much as $7,600—particularly burdening low-income consumers. While certain U.S. manufacturers might benefit from protectionist policies, overall, these measures may lead to inflation, higher interest rates, and stress on the housing market and related retail sectors.

In Hungary, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) reports a September trade surplus of €1.2 billion, a €187 million drop year-on-year as both exports and imports experienced declines amid challenging economic conditions. September exports totaled €12.3 billion, down 5%, while imports fell by 4.0% to €11.1 billion.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reveals that Australia's goods trade surplus in September was AUD 4.609 billion, missing market expectations of AUD 5.24 billion and down from the previous month's AUD 5.284 billion. Export values dropped by 4.3% month-on-month to AUD 40.827 billion, while imports fell by 3.1% to AUD 36.219 billion. Compared to August, both exports and imports saw declines of 0.2%. Australia's September export rate was down 4.3% (previously -0.2%), and the import rate fell by 3.1% (previously -0.2%).

In Vietnam, the total value of goods traded over the first ten months of 2024 reached $647.87 billion, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase. However, the trade balance of $23.31 billion represented a 6% drop from the previous year. During this period, illegal cross-border trade in goods, currency, and gold increased, along with violations in the sale and transportation of goods in border regions. While the customs department handled fewer criminal cases, it still processed a high number of customs violations. In October, Vietnam's trade surplus narrowed to $2 billion, with import growth outpacing exports. As a Southeast Asian manufacturing hub, Vietnam's economic growth heavily depends on exports, though industrial production in October grew more slowly year-on-year than in September. The Vietnamese government aims to exceed projected economic growth, with the October Consumer Price Index showing a year-on-year increase below the government's target ceiling. Additionally, Vietnam plans to abolish tax exemptions on low-value imported goods, aligning with practices already abandoned by other signatories of the Kyoto Convention.

In Indonesia, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto announced plans to extend the minimum retention period for export earnings from natural resources to over three months. Indonesia is preparing to revise relevant regulations to help boost foreign currency supplies, aiming to alleviate pressure on the Indonesian rupiah.