Analysis of China's Foreign Trade Performance (Jan - Oct 2024)

1. October Trade Highlights

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, October 2024 saw a 12.7% year-on-year increase in exports (USD-based), well above the projected 5%. Imports, however, declined by 2.3% year-on-year. The trade surplus for October reached $95.72 billion, exceeding the forecasted $75.0 billion.

2. Trade Overview from January to October  

In the first 10 months of 2024, China's total goods trade value reached RMB 36.02 trillion, marking a 5.2% year-on-year growth, with exports at RMB 20.8 trillion (+6.7%) and imports at RMB 15.22 trillion (+3.2%), indicating stable foreign trade expansion.

3. Breakdown by Trade Method  

- General Trade:  

General trade accounted for RMB 23.09 trillion, up by 3.9% from the previous year and making up 64.1% of China's total foreign trade. Exports rose to RMB 13.58 trillion (+7.8%), while imports decreased slightly to RMB 9.51 trillion (-1.2%).

- Processing Trade:  

Processing trade totaled RMB 6.53 trillion (+4.0%), making up 18.1% of China's trade. Exports in this category reached RMB 4.13 trillion (+1.6%), and imports stood at RMB 2.4 trillion (+8.3%).

- Bonded Logistics:  

Bonded logistics trade reached RMB 5.09 trillion, a robust 14% growth, with exports at RMB 1.96 trillion (+11.5%) and imports at RMB 3.13 trillion (+15.7%).

4. Mechanical and Electrical Products Trade  

From January to October 2024, exports of mechanical and electrical products reached RMB 12.36 trillion (+8.5%), making up 59.4% of China's total exports. Notably, exports of ships, cars, and motorcycles grew by 74.9%, 20%, and 24.6%, respectively, while home appliances and general machinery exports increased by 16.1% and 14.5%. Import volumes of energy and mineral products rose by 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively. Mechanical and electrical imports reached RMB 5.75 trillion (+8.6%), including 13.7% growth in aircraft parts and an 11.5% increase in electronic components.

5. Textile and Apparel Exports
In October, China’s textile and apparel exports rose by 11.9% year-on-year. Textile exports grew by 16.1%, while apparel exports increased by 8.1%. From January to October 2024, China's textile industry witnessed steady growth in production and continuous improvement in its benefit level. The export situation was generally positive, and the growth rate accelerated compared to that of the first three quarters. From January to October, the cumulative exports of China's textile products and clothing reached 2478.9 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%.

6. Import and Export of Jewelry Products

Since 2024, international trade relations have faced severe challenges, yet the import and export of China's jewelry products have still maintained relatively high resilience. In the first three quarters, the import and export volume of China's jewelry reached 113.266 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 2.37%. Among them, the export volume witnessed a year-on-year increase of 11.03%, injecting continuous positive confidence and impetus into the industry. 

7. China-U.S. Trade from January to October  

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, total trade between China and the U.S. grew by 2.8% year-on-year during the first 10 months of 2024. Chinese exports to the U.S. rose by 3.3%, while imports from the U.S. increased by 1.2%. Despite this growth, the trade balance remains significantly tilted, and potential geopolitical factors could continue to impact trade relations.

8. Trade with Belt & Road and Other Regions  

From January to October 2024, trade between China and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries totaled RMB 16.94 trillion, up by 6.2%. Trade with ASEAN reached RMB 5.67 trillion (+8.8%), reinforcing ASEAN's position as China's largest trading partner. Trade with the EU, U.S., and South Korea amounted to RMB 4.64 trillion, RMB 4.01 trillion, and RMB 1.91 trillion, reflecting growth of 1.2%, 4.4%, and 6.7%, respectively. Additionally, trade with RCEP members grew by 4.3%, while trade with BRICS and Latin American countries expanded by 4.5% and 9.1%, respectively.

9. China-Brazil Trade Reaches ¥1.14 Trillion in First 10 Months

On November 17, China’s General Administration of Customs reported that the total trade volume between China and Brazil reached ¥1.14 trillion in the first 10 months of 2024, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year growth. This growth rate surpasses China's overall foreign trade growth by 4.7 percentage points. Exports from China to Brazil amounted to ¥432.08 billion, while imports stood at ¥708.15 billion, both maintaining a steady upward trend.

In the first ten months of 2024, China accounted for over 70% of Brazil's exports of soybeans and iron ore, and over 40% of its exports of pulp and crude oil. Meanwhile, more high-quality industrial products from China have entered Brazil, helping Brazil accelerate its pace of "re-industrialization". In the first ten months of 2024, China exported 216.86 billion yuan worth of intermediate goods to Brazil, representing an increase of 11.8% and accounting for 50.2% of China's total exports to Brazil. Among them, the exports of intermediate goods such as textiles, auto parts, electrical equipment, and flat panel display modules witnessed rapid growth, with growth rates reaching 15.4%, 26.5%, 31.2%, and 22.2% respectively. 

10. China-Peru Trade Maintained Rapid Growth in the First Ten Months

According to the data from the United Nations, as of 2023, China had been Peru's largest source of imports and largest export market for ten consecutive years. According to China Customs statistics, the bilateral trade volume first exceeded 100 billion yuan in 2016. Since then and up to 2023, it had witnessed rapid growth at an average annual growth rate of 14.6%. In the first ten months of this year, China's imports and exports with Peru reached 254.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate (the same below) of 16.8%. The bilateral trade has continued to grow rapidly, and the trade volume has constantly reached new highs.

Products such as Chinese automobiles, mobile phones, computers, and home appliances are widely popular in Peru. In the first ten months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products to Peru were worth 40.43 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1%, accounting for 50.2% of the total value of China's exports to Peru during the same period. Among them, the exports of automobiles and spare parts, mobile phones, computers, and household appliances increased by 8.7%, 29.1%, 29.3%, and 34.7% respectively. During the same period, China's exports of labor-intensive products to Peru were worth 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%, accounting for 20.5%. Among them, the exports of textile and clothing, and plastic products increased by 9.1% and 14.3% respectively.

Peru is an important source of imports for China in terms of copper ore and fishmeal for feed, etc. In the first ten months, China imported 148.95 billion yuan worth of metal ores and 14.47 billion yuan worth of agricultural products from Peru, with increases of 19.2% and 23.8% respectively, accounting for 85.5% and 8.3% of the total value of China's imports from Peru respectively. Among them, 5.892 million tons of copper ore and 813,000 tons of fishmeal for feed were imported respectively, accounting for 25.2% and 46.2% of China's total imports of similar products during the same period respectively, making Peru the second largest and the largest source of imports for these products in China respectively.

11. China's Trade with Other Economies in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

According to customs statistics, in the first ten months of 2024, China's imports and exports with other APEC economies totaled 21.27 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the same period and accounting for 59.1% of China's total imports and exports.

In the first ten months, China's imports and exports with other APEC economies grew by 5.7% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than China's overall growth rate during the same period. Among them, imports and exports with Vietnam, Peru, Malaysia, and Mexico increased by 17.4%, 16.8%, 12.1%, and 11.7% respectively; imports and exports with Hong Kong and Taiwan regions of China increased by 11.3% and 11% respectively; and the growth rates of imports and exports with South Korea, Thailand, Canada, and Brunei were higher than China's overall growth rate. In addition, both imports and exports with the United States, Russia, and Singapore maintained growth.

In the first ten months, China exported 5.56 trillion yuan worth of intermediate goods to other APEC economies, an increase of 8.4%, accounting for 45.4% of the total value of China's exports to other APEC economies during the same period. Among them, the exports of intermediate goods such as electronic components, auto parts, accessories for automatic data processing equipment, and flat panel display modules increased by 17.3%, 8%, 24.8%, and 24% respectively. During the same period, China exported a wide variety of consumer goods to other APEC economies. For example, the exports of textile and clothing were worth 906.88 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.9%; the exports of fruits and vegetables were worth 92.87 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6%; the exports of furniture and televisions were worth 181.85 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.9%; and the exports of passenger cars were worth 212.35 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.6%.

In the first ten months, China imported 7.23 trillion yuan worth of intermediate goods from other APEC economies, an increase of 3.5%, accounting for 80.2% of the total value of imports from other APEC economies. Among them, the imports of mechanical and electrical intermediate goods were worth 2.88 trillion yuan, with an increase of 9.6%; the imports of energy products were worth 1.15 trillion yuan, with an increase of 6.6%; and the imports of metal ores were worth 945.1 billion yuan, with an increase of 6.4%.