China’s Green Hydrogen Output Projected to Exceed 3 Million Tonnes by 2030

From 22 to 24 October, the 2025 China Hydrogen Industry Conference was held in Foshan, Guangdong Province. Attending experts noted that China's green hydrogen sector is developing rapidly, with production expected to exceed 3 million tonnes by 2030. Future efforts must focus on policy frameworks, core technologies, standardisation systems, and application scenarios.

Analysts indicated that by the end of 2024, China had established a green hydrogen production capacity of 120,000 tonnes, representing nearly 50% of the global total. The country is on track to meet its 2025 target, set out in the Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035), of achieving an annual renewable hydrogen production of between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes.

The supporting infrastructure and vehicle fleet are also expanding significantly. The conference was told that China currently has 27,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in operation, constituting 28.4% of the global fleet, and has built 540 hydrogen refuelling stations, accounting for 40% of the world's total.

Wang Yiming, former Deputy Director of the Development Research Centre of the State Council and Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, addressed the future direction of the industry. He stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the primary application for new energy-derived hydrogen would be its integration with traditional industries, transport, and energy systems. This integration is set to be a key focus for innovation within the green hydrogen industrial chain.

Mr Wang emphasised a need to strengthen 'application scenario-oriented' scientific research, concentrating on the sectors of industry, transport, and energy. He advocated for intensified research efforts to continuously reduce the cost of hydrogen energy application and to drive technological innovation through specific scenario demands, thereby creating a 'virtuous cycle of research, demonstration, and iteration'.

Further underscoring the scale of growth, Zhang Xiaoqiang, former Vice Chairman of China's National Development and Reform Commission, contended that China's green hydrogen production could 'well exceed' 3 million tonnes by 2030. He said this would create a market worth over one trillion yuan, positioning China at the global forefront of the industry.

Mr Zhang also highlighted the emerging demand from the shipping sector. With international maritime efforts to establish binding net-zero emission frameworks, demand for green methanol is projected to surge from a current annual consumption of several hundred thousand tonnes to between 30 and 40 million tonnes by 2030. As the world's largest shipping nation, China will see substantial growth in its own green methanol requirements, in turn driving demand for green hydrogen.

Despite the optimistic outlook, challenges remain. Zhang Xiaoqiang pointed to several issues requiring attention, including the need for further breakthroughs in core technologies, the geographical mismatch between green power generation in the northwest and demand centres elsewhere, and gaps in policy and standards frameworks.

He stated that future efforts should intensify the multi-sectoral utilisation of green hydrogen, particularly in industrial applications such as power generation, petrochemicals, coal chemical processing, and metallurgy.

Conference participants noted that the hydrogen industry is currently transitioning from being purely policy-driven to a dual-driven model combining policy and market forces. They concluded that policy support remains crucial, and efforts should focus on strengthening policy coordination to mitigate risks for market entities and accelerate industrial scaling. Additional priorities include developing mechanisms for prioritising green hydrogen consumption, establishing scientific methods for calculating and certifying hydrogen's carbon reduction effects, and continuously refining the industry's standards system.