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07 Dec 2024
China's TDI Exports Poised for a Rebound After Two Years of Decline
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China's TDI Export Performance Hits 20-Month High in October 2024
According to customs data, China exported 37,700 tons of TDI (toluene diisocyanate) in October 2024, a marginal increase of 400 tons (0.95%) compared to the previous month. Year-over-year, exports surged by 15,100 tons, a growth rate of 66.81%. This marks the highest monthly export volume in 20 months.
On the other hand, China imported 1,200 tons of TDI in October 2024, down by 300 tons (10.55%) from the previous month and a sharp 64.49% decline compared to the same period last year.
TDI Exports Set for a Turnaround in 2024 After Two Years of Decline
From January to October 2024, China's cumulative TDI exports reached 287,900 tons, a year-over-year increase of 1.75%. Based on this trend, total exports for 2024 are expected to reach approximately 360,000 tons, representing a projected annual growth of over 8%. This demonstrates China's strong competitive edge in the global TDI market.
In contrast, TDI exports had declined in the previous two years, with export growth rates of -9.65% in 2022 and -0.48% in 2023.
Global Capacity Shifts to China Amid Plant Closures
Recent years have seen multiple global TDI production facilities shutting down, driving a shift in production capacity to China. Key closures include:
- BASF's 300,000-ton/year TDI facility in Germany, shut down in February 2023.
- Tosoh's 25,000-ton/year TDI plant, closed in April 2023.
- Mitsui Chemicals MCNS, announcing a reduction in TDI capacity to 50,000 tons by 2025.
- Petroquímica Río Tercero in Argentina, halting operations at its Córdoba TDI plant in October 2024.
The reduction in global capacity has created supply gaps in the market, allowing China to expand its export footprint, leveraging its cost advantage.
Price Trends Highlight China's Competitive Edge
China's TDI export prices in 2024 have consistently remained below last year's levels. In 2023, monthly average export prices ranged between $1,900 and $2,300 per ton, while in 2024, they have hovered between $1,700 and $1,800 per ton. Domestically, TDI prices in China have also stayed relatively low, reinforcing the country's pricing advantage.
October 2024: Export Growth, Import Decline
In October, China's TDI exports increased while imports decreased. On one hand, overseas TDI production disruptions slightly reduced global supply. On the other, China's low TDI prices not only boosted its export competitiveness but also squeezed the profit margins for TDI imports from countries like Japan and South Korea.
From January to October 2024, China exported 287,900 tons of TDI (up 1.75% YoY) and imported 16,900 tons (up 25.55% YoY).
China's TDI Industry Poised for Capacity Expansion
Several capacity upgrades in China are set to reinforce its global dominance:
- Gansu Yinguang increased TDI capacity to 150,000 tons in 2024.
- Wanhua Chemical's Xinjiang facility expanded to 200,000 tons.
- Future expansions include Wanhua's Fujian Phase 1 facility, increasing capacity from 250,000 tons to 360,000 tons by 2025, alongside the construction of a Phase 2 facility with an additional 360,000-ton capacity.
With global TDI capacity increasingly concentrated in China, the country is set to become the primary supplier to the global market. Through stable supply chains and competitive pricing, China is accelerating its export strategy and expanding its presence in international markets.
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