Bisphenol A Rebounds: PC and Epoxy Resin Surge Across the Board

In December, Bisphenol A (BPA) prices in China have shown a consistent upward trend. As of now, BPA prices in East China range between 9,400–9,450 RMB/ton, while in North China and Shandong, prices range from 9,100–9,300 RMB/ton, reflecting an increase of 400–500 RMB/ton compared to the end of November. The rapid rise in raw material phenol prices has driven BPA prices upward in North China and Shandong, with East China and other regions following suit. Major producers, including Chang Chun Chemical, Nantong Xingchen, and Jiangsu Ruineng, have raised their quotes to 9,350–9,450 RMB/ton, with the trade market mirroring this trend.

Cost-driven pressures have pushed downstream products like epoxy resin and polycarbonate (PC) to follow suit. As of now, liquid epoxy resin prices in East China range from 13,600–13,800 RMB/ton, up 400–500 RMB/ton compared to late November. Solid epoxy resin prices have risen to 12,900–13,100 RMB/ton, an increase of 200–300 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, PC prices in East China (Yuyao) have reached 12,600 RMB/ton, up 100–200 RMB/ton.

In 2024, the imbalance between supply and demand in the BPA industry is unlikely to be resolved. With prices under pressure, the industry continues to experience significant profit losses and lower operating rates compared to previous years. The average profit margin for BPA in China stands at -914 RMB/ton for 2024, a sharp decline of 575 RMB/ton (-169.61%) from the previous year's -339 RMB/ton.

Despite modest growth in both supply and demand, the increase in supply has outpaced demand, leading to downward price fluctuations. The persistent high costs of upstream materials, especially phenol and acetone, where producers have reduced output to maintain prices, have further eroded profits. Combined with an oversupply in the market, these factors are the primary reasons behind the prolonged losses in the BPA industry.

Long-term losses have placed significant pressure on BPA producers, resulting in more frequent plant shutdowns for maintenance or economic reasons. In 2024, several facilities, such as Yanshan Polycarbonate (150,000 tons/year), Luxi Chemical (200,000 tons/year), and Huizhou Zhongxin (40,000 tons/year), remained offline, further reducing overall capacity utilization. The industry's average operating rate in 2024 fluctuated between 61%–71%, with an average of 67%, a 6 percentage point drop from 2023.

In the short term, the delayed commissioning of new BPA production facilities and strong price support from key manufacturers suggest that BPA's supply-demand fundamentals remain stable, with prices expected to hold firm in the near term.

However, the long-term outlook remains challenging. By 2025, at least three new BPA production facilities are slated for operation, adding an estimated capacity of 720,000 tons/year. Meanwhile, the expansion of downstream PC and epoxy resin production is expected to slow, with only 250,000 tons/year of PC and 600,000 tons/year of epoxy resin capacity likely to be added.

This imbalance, with supply far outpacing demand, suggests that BPA prices will remain under pressure in 2025. While short-term rebounds cannot be ruled out, the overall market trend is expected to stay weak.