U.S. Tariff Hikes Deal a Heavy Blow to Japan's Economic Foundation

Recently, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would maintain its current interest rate levels while closely monitoring the policy moves of major economies, including the United States, before cautiously deciding on further rate hikes. One of the most significant sources of uncertainty behind this decision is the U.S. government's tariff policy. With monetary policy constrained, export industries under pressure, and limited room for international negotiations, Japan is once again forced to seek dual breakthroughs in diplomatic and industrial policies, as Washington's tariff measures take a profound toll on Japan's economic fundamentals.

In March, both the BOJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve held monetary policy meetings and decided to keep interest rates unchanged. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda repeatedly emphasized “high uncertainty” at a press conference, stressing that Japan would closely watch the policies of major economies, particularly the United States, before determining the timing of future rate hikes. A key factor contributing to this uncertainty is the U.S. government's tariff hikes.

On March 26 (local time), President Donald Trump signed an executive order at the White House, announcing a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles, set to take effect on April 2. Japanese car imports are expected to be heavily impacted by this measure.

The tariff “big stick” is about to come down hard. Japanese economists argue that America's auto industry suffers from low productivity and a lack of global competitiveness, which has led to a persistent trade deficit in the sector. The claim of unfair trade barriers is seen as a false narrative.

Experts caution that protecting the U.S. auto industry through tariffs will only sustain its inefficiencies, high costs, and declining global competitiveness. Moreover, in response to Washington's aggressive tariff policies, a global backlash against American cars may emerge, potentially further depressing U.S. auto exports. Some analysts suggest that the world has entered an era where it can no longer economically rely on the United States, reinforcing the need for Japan to diversify its trade partnerships.

According to Masayuki Katayama, Chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, a 25% tariff will inevitably trigger major adjustments in Japan's auto production. Industry experts warn that Japanese automakers highly reliant on U.S. exports—such as Mazda and Subaru—must fundamentally rethink their production models.

1）Relocating large-scale production to the U.S. would be an enormous financial burden and strain Japanese parts manufacturers.

2）Passing additional costs onto car prices is difficult, forcing automakers to cut production costs instead.

3）Standardization of vehicle components may accelerate as manufacturers seek cost reductions.

For some time, the Japanese government and business leaders had hoped to negotiate a tariff exemption with Washington. However, recent developments shatter any illusions of Japan escaping the tariff hikes.

Japan is the third-largest source of U.S. car imports, accounting for 17% of the market—behind Mexico (37%) and South Korea (19%). When Japanese cars manufactured in Mexico are included, the actual share is even higher. Some economists argue that Washington is targeting Japanese automakers because they have “taken away America's wealth.”

Historically, Japan has agreed to voluntarily limit car exports to the U.S. in exchange for tariff exemptions. Some suggest that Japan's government and automakers could propose expanding U.S. domestic production and voluntarily restricting car exports to avoid tariffs. However, given that the EU and other regions are unlikely to make similar concessions, Japan's attempt to negotiate exemptions through voluntary export limits may prove futile.

A Japanese business executive noted that without clarity on the "worst-case scenario," companies are unable to act, as policy uncertainty continues to suppress investment and disrupt export planning.

Recently, the OECD released its mid-term economic outlook, revising down its 2025 global growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1%. Given the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, Japan's 2025 growth forecast has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points.

If the U.S. and Japan impose 25% tariffs on each other, Japan's GDP could shrink by 0.87% over three years. Further estimates suggest that if Washington were to impose a 25% tariff on all Japanese exports, Japan's exports would decline by ¥3.7 trillion, resulting in a 0.61% drop in GDP. Indirect effects—such as trade partners experiencing economic slowdowns due to tariffs—could lead to an overall GDP contraction closely aligned with OECD forecasts.

With monetary policy constrained, export industries under pressure, and limited diplomatic maneuverability, Japan is once again forced to explore breakthroughs in both diplomacy and industrial policy. Analysts argue that given the Japan-U.S. alliance, Tokyo is unlikely to retaliate with countermeasures. However, if Washington's "maximum pressure" strategy forces Japan to make further concessions in other areas, Japan may lose even more economic policy autonomy in the future.