OECD Lowers Global Economic Growth Forecast for 2025 to 3.1%

On March 17, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 downward from 3.3% to 3.1%.

In its latest Economic Outlook report, the OECD noted that while the global economy has remained resilient in 2024, recent economic activity indicators suggest a weakening growth outlook. Business and consumer confidence in several countries is declining, and inflationary pressures persist across many economies. Meanwhile, various policy uncertainties pose significant risks to economic growth.

The OECD also lowered its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.0%, citing protectionist trade policies in the United States as a key factor. The report warns that escalating trade tensions and potential trade wars could lead to higher-than-expected inflation.

Additionally, changes in Europe's security landscape have prompted several European nations to increase defense spending. Earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced the *Rearmament of Europe* initiative, proposing a €800 billion investment to build a secure and resilient Europe. The OECD believes this surge in defense spending could exacerbate long-term fiscal pressures.

- Eurozone: 1.0% growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 (previously 1.3% and 1.5%)

- France: 0.8% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026

- United States: 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasized that rising trade barriers will increase production and consumer costs. He underscored the importance of maintaining an open and rules-based international trade system to sustain economic stability and growth.