China's Banana Import Market Landscape Undergoes Subtle Changes

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the country's banana import volume in 2024 is approximately 1.6867 million tons, a decrease of 4.61% compared to the previous year. Overall, the banana import volume in China shows a clear downward trend.

In recent years, some traditional banana-exporting countries have faced supply challenges. For example, over the past decade, banana production in the Philippines has been severely affected by multiple adverse factors such as Tropical Wilt Disease and floods. As a result, the Philippines lost its position as the world's second-largest banana exporter, which it held for six years, to Guatemala in 2023. Similarly, the Cambodian banana-producing regions have also been deeply impacted by banana wilt disease. These diseases have significantly affected the quantity and quality of bananas produced in these countries, leading to insufficient supply in the export markets and a reduction in bilateral trade volumes. The Philippines, once one of China's key banana suppliers, saw a sharp decline in banana exports to China in 2024.

Changes in the trade environment and policies in related countries have also contributed to the shift in China's banana import trade pattern. Countries like Vietnam and Laos have seized the opportunity, with their banana export volumes to China increasing significantly. In 2024, the share of bananas imported from Laos and Vietnam to China increased by 2.82% and 8.46%, respectively. In fact, banana trade from Vietnam to China surpassed that from the Philippines, making it the largest supplier. The opening of the China-Laos Railway, particularly the launch of the “Beijing-Dian-Lancang-Mekong Line” international cold chain train in October 2024, has created favorable transportation conditions for Lao bananas to be imported into China. This not only greatly shortens transportation time, ensuring the freshness and quality of bananas, but also reduces transportation losses. At the same time, the implementation of a 100% zero-tariff policy on Lao exports to China and cooperation on the "single window" trade system have reduced export costs and improved customs efficiency for Lao bananas.

From the perspective of China's banana industry, changes in production levels and shifting consumer demands go hand in hand. On one hand, the progress in China's banana planting technology has led to steady increases in domestic production, providing a certain level of substitution for imported bananas. The development of domestic banana farming is on a positive trajectory, with production expected to rise further. On the other hand, consumers' demand for fruit has become more diverse, with more types of fruit entering the market, which has diluted the share of bananas in overall fruit consumption.

Market analysis predicts that China's total banana imports in 2025 may continue to decline compared to 2024, with an estimated import volume of around 1.6 million tons. However, regardless of the import volume trends, bananas will remain an important fruit in the market, as they continue to be loved by the masses. With the development of the industry, both domestic and imported bananas are making notable progress in terms of quality improvements, variety innovation, and supply chain optimization, leaving ample room for market growth.